Interesting article on Putin's handling of Crimea and Georgia

Vanilla Gorilla · Mar 18, 2014

I dunno about that. I think Giap got all of the US Mil he could handle. And Hitler didn't even have the US on his radar.

freedive10 · Mar 18, 2014

Vanilla Gorilla said:
I dunno about that. I think Giap got all of the US Mil he could handle. And Hitler didn't even have the US on his radar.

True, but the US underestimated Hitler at the start.

JACK- Did we hijack your thread enough!? Sorry bro! VG and I will discuss off forum. LOL

Hitman · Mar 18, 2014

and that ship is there now > http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/uss-truxton-black-sea-exercises-crimea-russia-ukraine

Vermiform · Mar 18, 2014

Vanilla Gorilla said:
Putin is just a 2.25 World Despot taking advantage of a War Weary US and a feckless EU.

That puts it into a better perspective. But he still has ICBMs so it is much harder to push him around.

Vanilla Gorilla · Mar 18, 2014

The ICBMs are a non-factor because using them is an End Game with no End Game. It's hard to push him around because Germany, France, and The UK have little to no will to push him around.

Jack · Mar 18, 2014

freedive10 said:
True, but the US underestimated Hitler at the start.

JACK- Did we hijack your thread enough!? Sorry bro! VG and I will discuss off forum. LOL

It's an evolution of discussion not a thread hijacking. It's good to see topics expand.

Vermiform · Mar 18, 2014

Vanilla Gorilla said:
The ICBMs are a non-factor because using them is an End Game with no End Game. It's hard to push him around because Germany, France, and The UK have little to no will to push him around.

Because of energy dependence or apathy?

Hitman · Mar 19, 2014

Ron Paul: Crimea secedes. So what?

Critics point to the Russian "occupation" of Crimea as evidence that no fair vote could have taken place.
Where were these people when an election held in an Iraq occupied by U.S. troops was called a "triumph of democracy"?

Why does the U.S. care which flag will be hoisted on a small piece of land thousands of miles away?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...e-russia-ron-paul-editorials-debates/6544163/

Vanilla Gorilla · Mar 19, 2014

Vermiform said:
Because of energy dependence or apathy?

Near term energy. Mid-Term Germany's 3rd Largest Trade Partner (since Germany is paying Europes Bills right now they have enormous sway.). Long Term Aparhy and the Ghost of WW2 and the Cold War.

madwabbit · Mar 19, 2014

ICBM's I don't see being anything more than a feasible threat. sure, he ...could, but they'd be heading back his way as well.

Dictators all have one thing in common: they want to remain dictators living off their people. nuclear war would put an abrupt end to that.

highest probability of a CBRN on american soil is a clandestine terrorist attack supplied by one of the aforementioned countries... which I think we will certainly see in our lifetime.

Vermiform · Mar 19, 2014

madwabbit said:
ICBM's I don't see being anything more than a feasible threat. sure, he ...could, but they'd be heading back his way as well.

Dictators all have one thing in common: they want to remain dictators living off their people. nuclear war would put an abrupt end to that.

highest probability of a CBRN on american soil is a clandestine terrorist attack supplied by one of the aforementioned countries... which I think we will certainly see in our lifetime.

What would our response be if he lobbed one onto our fleet and didn't strike continental US?

Vanilla Gorilla · Mar 19, 2014

Hitting a moving target on an ocean isn't what ICBMs do. Of he used a small tactical device against a Vessel or Group of Vessels I would expect the response would be NATO, in fairly short order, dismantling the entirety of Russia's Conventional Military Capability.

madwabbit · Mar 19, 2014

Putin wouldn't attack the fleet lol.

Liken that theory to the idea of N. Korea "nuking california". They can threaten, broadcast, televise, and scream it a thousand times to get international attention (and negotiate for $$$$)... in the end we know that deep down they know better.

oleheat · Mar 19, 2014

A Ukrainian official has apparently stated they are planning to withdraw their military from Crimea, according to the AP.....

http://www.omaha.com/article/20140319/AP09/140318427

Also:

Ukraine's security chief says that the country will hold joint military exercises with the United States and Britain.

Andriy Parubiy, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council secretary, said Wednesday that Ukraine will hold maneuvers with the countries that signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. He didn't give any specifics.

The document was signed by the U.S., Britain and Russia to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity after it had surrendered its share of Soviet nuclear arsenals to Russia.

Ukraine has accused Russia of breaching the agreement by taking over the Crimean peninsula.

jimdana1942 · Mar 19, 2014

Vermiform said:
That puts it into a better perspective. But he still has ICBMs so it is much harder to push him around.

This. You can't push Russia.

Vermiform · Mar 19, 2014

jimdana1942 said:
This. You can't push Russia.

Well, I'm sure you can, I was just gaming it in my head and asking here because we have a few really well informed members that excel at war theory.

If he were to hit our fleet, would it be difficult to maintain air superiority? What's their airforce like these days? Do we have any bases in that region?

BenCarp27 · Mar 19, 2014

Vanilla Gorilla said:
Hitting a moving target on an ocean isn't what ICBMs do. If he used a small tactical device against a Vessel or Group of Vessels I would expect the response would be NATO, in fairly short order, dismantling the entirety of Russia's Conventional Military Capability.

I agree with this. Russia doesn't have the large, powerful and technologically advanced military that we were taught to fear as children and young men during the Cold War.
Putin isn't an idiot. He knows he has a couple of economic strings to pull, and he knows perception and indecision by certain foreign officials are in his favor. He will take advantage of any weakness he is allowed. But- He also knows his military doesn't have the capability to withstand any coordinated attack by NATO forces.
15-20 mins of quick research will tell you what you need to know in reference to military capability, age/condition of equipment, average flight hours logged per year for combat pilots, etc.

Vanilla Gorilla · Mar 20, 2014

Vermiform said:
Well, I'm sure you can, I was just gaming it in my head and asking here because we have a few really well informed members that excel at war theory.

If he were to hit our fleet, would it be difficult to maintain air superiority? What's their airforce like these days? Do we have any bases in that region?

All of Western Europe is filled with Airbases. Not to mention massive bases in The Baltics and Poland. The threat of military force from Russia isn't all that credible. There are some near term economic levers Russia can pull vis a vis Natural Gas it supplies to Europe. However that's winning the battle at the cost of the war. If Europe starts fracking and importing gas from the US, North Africa, and Canada it's economies
Will hum right along on e those supply chains are ironed out. What will Russia do without a market easily reachable by pipelines? The Russian economy is a One Trick Pony. Kind of a House of Cards propped up by oil and gas cash. Any force they exert on the Gas and Oil market will hurt Europe in the short term but has the potential to undo Russia in the mid to long term.

Vermiform · Mar 20, 2014

Vanilla Gorilla said:
All of Western Europe is filled with Airbases. Not to mention massive bases in The Baltics and Poland. The threat of military force from Russia isn't all that credible. There are some near term economic levers Russia can pull vis a vis Natural Gas it supplies to Europe. However that's winning the battle at the cops of the war. If Europe starts fracking and importing gas from the US, North Africa, and Canada it's economies
Will hum right along on e those supply chains are ironed out. What will Russia do without a market easily reachable by pipelines? The Russian economy is a one
Trick Pony. Kind of a House of Cards propped up by oil and gas cash. Any force they exert on the Gas and Oil market will hurt Europe in the short term but has the potential to undo Russia in the mid to long term.

That's what I was looking for. Thanks for the lesson.

madwabbit · Mar 20, 2014

personally im more concerned that they begin 'misplacing' nuclear devices or outright selling components to the highest bidder thats willing to burn our flag.

Interesting article on Putin's handling of Crimea and Georgia

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