Has anyone heard about or bought a ticket from this club for their 52 gun give-away? I checked out their website at www.walkerkiwanis.us but wanted some input before I "pulled the trigger'.
This is a classic case of the supposed odds of winning looking much better than the actual odds.
Mathematically: there is a 0.1% chance of any one ticket taking home a prize throughout the year. The math is pretty straightforward.
The probability of *not* winning a prize is:
(1000 tickets - 1 ticket purchased) / 52 chances to win
----------------------------------------------------- = 99.9%
(1000 tickets) / 52 chances to win
Based on this, the odds are:
(1 - 99%) / (99%) = 0.1%
A 0.1% chance (in other words, one in one thousand) of increasing my $50 investment by five fold to eight fold isn't worth it, in my books.
All the same, the Kiwanis are a fine organization and I wouldn't hesitate to support them. I just wouldn't hold my breath that I'd be taking home a new gun.
Mike