Everything Corona! Latest News, Insights, Theories, Prognostications! Armegeddon?

Magdump said:

I had to pick the line of work that guarantees I’m gonna be working...

Click to expand...

Cheesy Lasagna said:

The worldwide mortality trend is at 3% according to WHO.
Much worse than the flu.
And remember, the same issues exist in determining the flu mortality rate so I’d say it’s comparable.

Click to expand...

Emperor said:

Yep!

But now knowing the WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, may have colluded with China to cover up the virus all the way back in October, I would be skeptical of anything coming out of there.

It's really sad too! Because I am sure there are some really good people in that organization as a whole. If it is concluded that this guy did in fact help in the concealment of this virus (that is what the early anecdotal evidence suggests), he should be imprisoned!

Click to expand...

Cheesy Lasagna said:

Yeah, they really botched it.
I definitely saw a trend to cover China’s incompetent response to the virus.
That said, I believe that 3% is a low estimate, all things considered.

Time will tell.

Click to expand...

Emperor said:

Yep!

Incidentally, I personally don't think China's response was incompetent. I believe wholeheartedly they were calculating, manipulative; and nefariously hiding the truth from the entire world. Their communist regime are complete dirtbags!

Click to expand...

Cheesy Lasagna said:

The worldwide mortality trend is at 3% according to WHO.
Much worse than the flu.
And remember, the same issues exist in determining the flu mortality rate so I’d say it’s comparable.

Click to expand...

Bangswitch said:

Even if you give the WHO the benefit of the doubt. The asymptomatic cases in other countries have likely gone untested in greater number than in America. The point is you can’t get an accurate estimate of death rate until you have an accurate estimate of asymptomatic cases. If you only use those who are actually sick from the virus to determine the death rate (which is what likely happened in some of these other countries) the the death rate would be overstated by comparison to the prevalence. The only way to provide accurate estimates would be to test the population at large in a scientific method like they would with a poll. Once you were able to determine the percentage of people who remain asymptomatic if even untreated the you could apply those numbers to the number of cases who are suffering from the virus. Then you could reasonably conclude how many people actually have/had it total. Then you apply number of deaths to get an accurate number.

The way it sounds the reported death rate calculation is similar to going to a Democratic primary and polling who likes Berney and saying half the country like Berney when it’s really only half the Democrats.

Click to expand...

Cheesy Lasagna said:

True, but it is a best guess estimate in good faith.
The most accurate way of knowing the true numbers is after this is all over, and even then a lot is guesswork.
(I have taught epistats at Tulane Med School in the past so I have somewhat of a grasp.)
Use what you validate as most trustworthy as a rough guide.

Click to expand...

Bangswitch said:

Ive never had epistats, and you taught it so you clearly have a leg up on me, but we both know 3% is a gross over estimate. Personally if I was being asked to give numbers on something like this I would decline. But the media and public would loose their ever loving minds without something regardless of how badly compiled and grossly inaccurate. Time will tell the truth but I fear we may be doing irrevocable harm to our country due to bad statistics.

Click to expand...

Cheesy Lasagna said:

My friend, statistics are not a true science as much as they are an art form.
Sure, the formulas are set but only give you back what you put in.
Shitty research equals inaccurate results.
Great research equals better results but nothing that’s 100% set in stone.
(Garbage in=Garbage out.)

Wasn’t trying to one up you at all.
In this event we’re living we owe it to each other to be as informed as we can and to share that knowledge freely and honestly.
Cue in China, who seem to believe they have everything to gain by altering their reporting of the epidemic to make it look better than it really is.
Most of the logged data currently has been filtered through China’s propaganda system and is neither reliable nor overly valid in my opinion.
Unfortunately it’s all we really have.
I am guessing that it’s overly optimistic.
The better reporting will come from areas that are less politically stifling.
Italy, France, Britain, U.S., etc. will likely look totally different from China’s offerings.
I am betting they’ll be higher in mortality alone, not taking into account intervening variables such as blood type, age, race, etc.
I am hoping I’m very wrong.

Click to expand...

Bangswitch said:

I didn’t thank that at all it’s good you put your creds out there it’s worth knowing. I think in a lot of ways we have made the tough decisions so that our mortality rate will be significantly lower than say Italy. It really caught them with their pants down. But this virus seems to pick and choose how it effects people. Those studies will be interesting to see particularly here in the us where we will try to make sense of it all. You know I just hope that’s when it’s all said and done it looks like we overreacted because that usually means what we did worked.

Click to expand...

Cheesy Lasagna said:

My friend, statistics are not a true science as much as they are an art form.
Sure, the formulas are set but only give you back what you put in.
Shitty research equals inaccurate results.
Great research equals better results but nothing that’s 100% set in stone.
(Garbage in=Garbage out.)

Wasn’t trying to one up you at all.
In this event we’re living we owe it to each other to be as informed as we can and to share that knowledge freely and honestly.
Cue in China, who seem to believe they have everything to gain by altering their reporting of the epidemic to make it look better than it really is.
Most of the logged data currently has been filtered through China’s propaganda system and is neither reliable nor overly valid in my opinion.
Unfortunately it’s all we really have.
I am guessing that it’s overly optimistic.
The better reporting will come from areas that are less politically stifling.
Italy, France, Britain, U.S., etc. will likely look totally different from China’s offerings.
I am betting they’ll be higher in mortality alone, not taking into account intervening variables such as blood type, age, race, etc.
I am hoping I’m very wrong.

Click to expand...

Emperor said:

Stimulus passes Senate 90-0

I am actually going to read the final passed version when it passes the House. At least the parts that pertain to my business, and my employees.

I will post my interpretations after that.

Click to expand...

Emperor said:

Remember, the Chinese doctor who secretly sounded the alarm of this oncoming pandemic, is dead! They (scumbag Chinese regime), said he died from it! Yea!

Click to expand...

Emperor said:

Stimulus passes Senate 90-0

I am actually going to read the final passed version when it passes the House. At least the parts that pertain to my business, and my employees.

I will post my interpretations after that.

Click to expand...