Firearmfanatic
*Banned*
Voted at 7:45 this morning. We have about 750 registered to vote at our place. There were 134 who had voted before me this morning. We are having a good turn out of voters.
Election Day! Geaux Vote!
- Thread starter Saintsfan6
- Start date
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whbonney26
Well-Known Member
I Voted
Take some heart in knowing that polls can be manipulated to show whatever outcome the pollster or customer wants. When a poll has a 3-4 point margin of error (most that are not designed to sway to a certain outcome), then you must think about it in this mathematical way.
Regardless of the actual number, think 10 as 100%. If a poll shows a candidate is 2 pts ahead of the other, then you assume that the outcome of the contest could only end up looking like one of these examples:
2 for vs 0 against & 8 not voting
3 for vs 1 against & 7 not voting
4 for vs 2 against & 6 not voting
etc., etc.
Now remember; these polls can't guarantee that all 10 people will actually vote. There are many reasons that someone may or may not actually make it to the polling place. But, they are based on very theoretical questions (or variations of), and one example would be; Are you likely to vote?
Now insert the margin of error (3-4%). This is where emotion runs wild.
If it is YOUR candidate you can now look at it like this:
2 for vs 0 +3 to 4 against & 5 to 6 not voting
3 for vs 1 +3 to 4 against & 3 to 2 not voting
4 for vs 2 +3 to 4 against & 1 to 0 not voting
etc., etc.
It works both ways too!
If a news organization, or reputable pollster (even pollsters can be in the tank for a certain ideology), wanted to skew the numbers they can actually tell you that they think a particular candidates is up by as much as 4 pts, and still be able to save their reputation if it turns out to be wrong. The margin of error is not only a reality, but can be used to cover when you want to fudge the numbers.
Polls are meant to be gauges not fact. They can be used to motivate and de-motivate a voting bloc. If you want to know if Trump has a shot, take a look behind the curtains on some of those polls. For instance; now that you know that CNN is actively in the tank for Clinton from the onset of the election process can anyone actually think for one second that CNN wants a fair outcome on their poll? Do you believe they cared if their poll was accurate? Can you trust them?
As for other polls, match the source with the Wikileaks showing active collusion. Same goes for college polls.
Don't count Trump out! He is in the margin of error on almost all polls, and they have 4 pts to play with to make him look like he's losing to you!
BTW: If you think The Criminal wanted to be in an open air rally at midnight with "common" people (North Carolinians), I assure you she thinks are garbage, because she has it wrapped up; you are insane!
Regardless of the actual number, think 10 as 100%. If a poll shows a candidate is 2 pts ahead of the other, then you assume that the outcome of the contest could only end up looking like one of these examples:
2 for vs 0 against & 8 not voting
3 for vs 1 against & 7 not voting
4 for vs 2 against & 6 not voting
etc., etc.
Now remember; these polls can't guarantee that all 10 people will actually vote. There are many reasons that someone may or may not actually make it to the polling place. But, they are based on very theoretical questions (or variations of), and one example would be; Are you likely to vote?
Now insert the margin of error (3-4%). This is where emotion runs wild.
If it is YOUR candidate you can now look at it like this:
2 for vs 0 +3 to 4 against & 5 to 6 not voting
3 for vs 1 +3 to 4 against & 3 to 2 not voting
4 for vs 2 +3 to 4 against & 1 to 0 not voting
etc., etc.
It works both ways too!
If a news organization, or reputable pollster (even pollsters can be in the tank for a certain ideology), wanted to skew the numbers they can actually tell you that they think a particular candidates is up by as much as 4 pts, and still be able to save their reputation if it turns out to be wrong. The margin of error is not only a reality, but can be used to cover when you want to fudge the numbers.
Polls are meant to be gauges not fact. They can be used to motivate and de-motivate a voting bloc. If you want to know if Trump has a shot, take a look behind the curtains on some of those polls. For instance; now that you know that CNN is actively in the tank for Clinton from the onset of the election process can anyone actually think for one second that CNN wants a fair outcome on their poll? Do you believe they cared if their poll was accurate? Can you trust them?
As for other polls, match the source with the Wikileaks showing active collusion. Same goes for college polls.
Don't count Trump out! He is in the margin of error on almost all polls, and they have 4 pts to play with to make him look like he's losing to you!
BTW: If you think The Criminal wanted to be in an open air rally at midnight with "common" people (North Carolinians), I assure you she thinks are garbage, because she has it wrapped up; you are insane!
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Right on the machine
Emperor you are spot on with polls. As the joke goes there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. You can tack polls onto that also. Unless you know the demographics of an individual poll then the numbers are meaningless. For example if I polled the members of this board only then Trump would have a 80 point lead. Poll the members of the government of San Francisco and Clinton would have a 90 point lead. The leaked emails did reveal poll tampering to bolster Clintons numbers.
Only poll I put any stock in is Gallup. And only then with a jaundiced eye. Basically a 4 point spilt which is within the margin of error. Did some digging last night and wondered what the historical difference between the final poll numbers and the difference after the election. 3 to 5 points is the answer. It ain't over yet.
Oh, another tidbit. Conservatives typically are under reported in polls. How many times has a pollster called you and you hung up on them? A bunch I bet. I know I have. Those on the left have a tendency to be much more open on their political views to complete strangers who call them up. It just is what it is.
Only poll I put any stock in is Gallup. And only then with a jaundiced eye. Basically a 4 point spilt which is within the margin of error. Did some digging last night and wondered what the historical difference between the final poll numbers and the difference after the election. 3 to 5 points is the answer. It ain't over yet.
Oh, another tidbit. Conservatives typically are under reported in polls. How many times has a pollster called you and you hung up on them? A bunch I bet. I know I have. Those on the left have a tendency to be much more open on their political views to complete strangers who call them up. It just is what it is.
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That is a very astute point! It is true that people with less conviction about their values are far more likely to brag about the idiots they are going to vote for. I have like minded acquaintances that monitor Facebook, and they are quick to point out how the phonies blab constantly and are always the most boisterous, and idiotic in their political views. I surmise, it is part of that phony liberal sickness.
I cant even speculate anymore, all I have is hope. I HOPE Florida actually can be called tonight and I HOPE the end game is 270 T to 268 C.
What I think will happen, a land side in either direction, OR Florida making this whole thing last a week longer than it should bc they follow tradition and cant get their **** together.
What I think will happen, a land side in either direction, OR Florida making this whole thing last a week longer than it should bc they follow tradition and cant get their **** together.
Many sacrificed a lot so that you could have the right to vote for the candidate of your choice.
Don't waste that sacrifice.
Geaux Vote.
Edit: My prediction? Either Trump by a wide margin, and Hillary hangs, or, . . . , Hillary wins on electoral college votes by a narrow margin.
Don't waste that sacrifice.
Geaux Vote.
Edit: My prediction? Either Trump by a wide margin, and Hillary hangs, or, . . . , Hillary wins on electoral college votes by a narrow margin.
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My prediction stays the same HC will win. I've never wanted to be wrong so bad.
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View attachment 66603
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Fox announced Trump takes Louisana (we knew that though, since we're a red state).
But the electoral votes took a HUGE swing after 5pm in Trumps favor, Why? B/c the republicans were getting off work and could finally vote.
But the electoral votes took a HUGE swing after 5pm in Trumps favor, Why? B/c the republicans were getting off work and could finally vote.
I would check that again. Florida could go to Clinton. He is ahead, but 5% is still left. That 5% is in heavy blue counties. I wouldn't count eggs before they hatch
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LOL yea OK
