Hurricane tracking

[Magdump]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


In case anyone just had that thought and wanted to check. Maybe Cat4-5 at this point so even a close shave will feel like a 3+ for a path wider than our state. Stay safe and ready guys. Be blessed.

Edit: please post any other good Hurricane info whether it’s tracking sites or what you see going on near you. Gas was hard to find in Hammond this evening. Walmart was out of bottled water by 8:30 this morning. All that tells me we are definitely gonna take a hit, lol.

 

[WhereIsIt?]

Was hoping to go to gatlinburg for some time off but the wife is on recovery team at the hospital... So if she stays means I gotta stay.

 

[Magdump]

Was hoping to go to gatlinburg for some time off but the wife is on recovery team at the hospital... So if she stays means I gotta stay.

I’m recovery as well. Gatlinburg is great. We were there in May to see a little more, mostly trails and falls in the area. Sure would be a good place to ride out a hurricane.

 

[JBP55]

I’m recovery as well. Gatlinburg is great. We were there in May to see a little more, mostly trails and falls in the area. Sure would be a good place to ride out a hurricane.

I have been going to that area for more than 50 years and will continue as long as my health allows.
I had plans to move there in January 2017 but I cancelled my flood insurance in 2015 when I paid my house off and the $$$$$$$$ loss from the 2016 flood cancelled that.

 

[buttanic]

This is from a private forecasting service an offshore company pays dearly for. I have found their forecasts to be dead on accurate.


Hurricane Ida Advisory 11
Valid: 04:00 AM EDT Saturday August 28, 2021
Hurricane Ida Track Chart, Advisory #11


Current Location: 23.8N, 85.2W
Geographic Reference: 435 miles SE of Mouth of MS River
Movement: Northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Above Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 986 mb

Key Points
1. There has been little change to the track or intensity forecast.
2. Severe damage from both wind and tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana.
3. Hurricane force winds are possible in Baton Rouge.
4. Inland flooding is also likely.

Our Forecast
Ida continues to move to the northwest. The overnight model guidance indicates that this track will continue. Models continue to converge upon a landfall somewhere between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with the greatest chance of landfall occurring between Morgan City and Houma. Our forecast track is largely unchanged from before. This takes Ida into the deepwater lease blocks today. Landfall is forecast to occur late tomorrow afternoon over southeast Louisiana. After landfall, Ida should slow and turn to the north and then the northeast. Our forecast takes Ida near Baton Rouge early Monday morning and then into the southeast United States.

Aircraft data indicated that the core of Ida was slightly disrupted by its passage over Cuba. This has kept the storm from intensifying over the past few hours. It is even possible that our estimate of 80 mph winds is generous. That said, the last pass through the center by the aircraft found a falling pressure, so perhaps Ida is starting to organize. Only gradual intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours is likely as the core recovers. Once the inner core recovers, rapid intensification will likely occur given how favorable the environment is. As Ida moves through the deepwater lease blocks, winds will likely be in the 100 mph to 110 mph range. By the time it reaches the SE Louisiana, winds are forecast to be 130 mph. After landfall, weakening should initially be slow due to the marshland that is over the south coast of Louisiana. More rapid weakening is expected once Ida moves north of the marshland. In addition to intensifying, Ida should become a bit larger. The combination of the intensity and size of Ida should result in a very high tidal surge over southeast Louisiana.

Our forecast keeps hurricane force winds a little west of New Orleans. However, Houma and Morgan City are expected to receive the worst of Ida. Baton Rouge is also at risk of receiving hurricane force winds.

Once inland, the focus will switch to inland flooding. The heaviest rains, which are forecast to be 10 to 15 inches with isolated 20 inch totals, are expected over southeast Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. However, up to a foot of rain could occur as far north as central Mississippi.

Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT

 

[Old School]

Same info on FOX8

 

[buttanic]

Same info on FOX8

But you don't have to see and listen to all the other fluff.

 

[Magdump]

But you don't have to see and listen to all the other fluff.

Nice to have confirmation tho.

Still looking like Morgan City to Baton Rouge. Could see sustained winds in BR around 65-75mph and same at 55mph in Hammond as of this post and winds at the storm are now at 100mph sustained.

 

[Magdump]

Winds are 150mph sustained which puts it in the cusp of category 5. Stronger than Katrina was at landfall. Still looking to head straight up through Baton Rouge. Please don’t write this storm off guys. Whatever you can do now could make all the difference later today and even into next week. Hoping for the best. Stay safe.

Here is some good info about what and when to expect in different parishes. Just scroll down the page and find your parish or whatever is closest to you.
https://www.nickelblock.com/8-29-21...ections-of-louisiana-mississippi-and-alabama/

 

[snipehunter7]

Here is some good info about what and when to expect in different parishes. Just scroll down the page and find your parish or whatever is closest to you.
https://www.nickelblock.com/8-29-21...ections-of-louisiana-mississippi-and-alabama/

Thanks Magdump. The parish breakdown is nice.


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[buttanic]

Appears motion is a little more west than north at the moment.

 

[MOTOR51]

Here is the forecast for the Livingston area as far as wind speeds

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[Magdump]

Here is the forecast for the Livingston area as far as wind speeds

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Those are awesome. Thanks Motor. Already looking pretty scary here in Hammond.

 

[MOTOR51]

Already have a fairly large gum tree fall behind the house, I didn’t care for it anyhow.


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[JBP55]

Already have a fairly large gum tree fall behind the house, I didn’t care for it anyhow.


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We had our house rattled by rain and wind several times already tonight.

 

[Saintsfan6]

Praying everyone is staying safe tonight.

 

[Horrible]

Already have a fairly large gum tree fall behind the house, I didn’t care for it anyhow.


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Hope that you are and yours are ok

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Praying everyone is staying safe tonight.

Thank you. Hope that you are ok as well. Dealing with more wind and rising waters still here in STP

 

[MOTOR51]

Hope that you are and yours are ok

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Thank you. Hope that you are ok as well. Dealing with more wind and rising waters still here in STP

Thanks sir, hope all is well there. Glad it’s over.


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[MOTOR51]

Cell service is sporadic so haven’t had many opportunities to check the site. Here are a few pics of the trees blocking path out after the storm. It’s hard to tell by the pics but a few of those are very old oaks that have survived their fair share of hurricanes. I hope everyone is safe especially the ones who got it even worse East and south me.

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