Would LSU Flood?

[ofcmetz]

According to this Advocate Article.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/latest/Engineers-give-timeline-for-Morganza-Spillway.html




“If we operate Morganza, there won’t be overtopping. If we don’t operate Morganza … about three miles south of Baton Rouge, we will have significant overtopping there. LSU and a couple of other significant infrastructure would be inundated,” said U.S. Army Maj. General Michael Walsh of the Army Corps of Engineers."

 

[sraacke]

I'm wondering if St Gabriel will flood. ??? We are south of LSU/BR and I havn't been able to get any info.
Where I am-> http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&s...esult&ct=title&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBkQ8gEwAA

 

[ofcmetz]

Pangris,

Don't know how much of a rumor this is, but I've been hearing that there is worries that once opened the Morganza Spillway could be difficult to close. Apparently the Mississippi River would chose the Achafalaya River path if given the chance and without the Old River Control Structure this would have happened years ago. There is supposed to be significant strain on the Old River Control Structure north of the Spillway as well. I've been reading Jeff Master's blog on wunderground.com for some interesting info on this.

 

[S&W4ME]

So glad I live in Walker

 

[Orfus5]

still trying to figure out why they havent opened the morganza yet........
I guess they like waiting till the last minute...

LSU seems like it would be very important to protect, as well as downtown possibly too.

 

[ofcmetz]

Well, sounds like I may be working in a boat soon if this is true. Uggggg, as if hurricanes weren't enough we get this just before the season.

 

[oleheat]

According to this Advocate Article.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/latest/Engineers-give-timeline-for-Morganza-Spillway.html




“If we operate Morganza, there won’t be overtopping. If we don’t operate Morganza … about three miles south of Baton Rouge, we will have significant overtopping there. LSU and a couple of other significant infrastructure would be inundated,” said U.S. Army Maj. General Michael Walsh of the Army Corps of Engineers."

I'm far from an expert- but I can say confidently that it would be a real possibility.


There is no way in hell they aren't going to open Morganza. People living in the lowlands that will be affected should make preparations NOW. When you see the locals moving out cattle to safer grounds, that should tell you something......

 

[JadeRaven]

I don't buy for one second that that's even an issue. These spillways are designed to be opened and closed. Even though some might be surprised, the corps keeps these things in good working order.

Worst case, they have to airdrop big sandbags like they did on the 18th street canal. And the only concern then would be stopping a flow that they wanted to start in the first place.

When it comes to the river, I put faith in the corps

 

[03protege]

They would never let LSU flood. If the 25,000-30,000 college students packed their bags and went to live back at home BR would be in trouble.

Well obviously not all would leave, but I imagaine a big portion would.

 

[biggin215]

Should I be worried? I'm living in BR right now and am sitting in my apartment... before I leave for vacation on the 16th should I send a bunch of my important stuff home?

 

[Suburbazine]

Most of LSU is in no danger if the levee overtops. The railroad tracks will stop most if not all of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[flamatrix99]

Pangris,

Don't know how much of a rumor this is, but I've been hearing that there is worries that once opened the Morganza Spillway could be difficult to close. Apparently the Mississippi River would chose the Achafalaya River path if given the chance and without the Old River Control Structure this would have happened years ago. There is supposed to be significant strain on the Old River Control Structure north of the Spillway as well. I've been reading Jeff Master's blog on wunderground.com for some interesting info on this.

From what I understand that used to occur naturally. The river would switch back and forth of several years before man 'tamed' the river.

 

[LACamper]

I did a fair amount of work in the past in the flood insurance arena, and if they DON'T open EVERY available SPILLWAY someone should be kneecapped.

.

Pangris,

Tell NFIP that some projection maps would be nice! What happens if the river reaches 25', if the levee fails at different points, etc. I have lots of projections for hurricane impacts but the flood maps ignore the river (at least for St. John) since it has a levee.

BTW, I'm getting lots of calls for flood insurance now but there's a 30 day wait before you have coverage so no one is buying.

 

[TomTerrific]

In the BR area there are three flood possibilities: Lots of rain backing up; Backflooding from the SE; and topping of the Mississippi levees.

The first two have happened several time in the 44y I have lived here.

If the levee is topped, the water will likely erode the levee letting a lot of water thru. This water will seek lower ground. The crevasse between Romeville and Convent in St. James is the result of levee topping 80y or so ago.

Morganza was opened in the early '70s. We used to go to Shreveport to visit family via La-1 which goes across the spillway and we went across it when they were flooding. The system there is way different than the one at BC having large, iron gates.

If a levee is breached, the Miss River is no 18th Street Canal.

 

[swagge1]

If the levee were breached near LSU how far do you think the water would go? I am 8 miles from the river as a crow flies. My elevation is about 33 feet.

 

[James Cannon]

From what I understand that used to occur naturally. The river would switch back and forth of several years before man 'tamed' the river.

It supposedly changed course every millenium or so, as it deposited enough silt to make it's current course less-steep and furthered it's delta such that it was a longer distance to get to the Gulf.

I'm from Missouri until I was in my 20s and moved to Lafayette, so I might have gotten a more "Huck Finn" history of the MS River, given that Mark Twain was from a town not far from my town. Some of y'all probably got a better history of the MS River, as it relates to the Atchafalaya, Old River, Bayou Teche, Bayou LaFourche, etc.

I have been reading through this article, http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1987/02/23/1987_02_23_039_TNY_CARDS_000347146?currentPage=all , which I've found to be, while lengthy, super interesting. Not all the way through it yet, but it's chocked full of history.

 

[gonepecan]

If a levee is breached, the Miss River is no 18th Street Canal.

Exactly. If there was a full breach, it would be near impossible to stop it.

However, it has been done. When the crevasse at Suave Plantation happened in 1849, workers were able to drive timbers into the ground and pile sandbags behind them, plugging the crevasse. I'd love to know how they did that.

Of course, things are a little different now, in that our levees are much higher than they were back then, so they are under much more pressure when the river gets this high.

 

[Emperor]

Should I be worried? I'm living in BR right now and am sitting in my apartment... before I leave for vacation on the 16th should I send a bunch of my important stuff home?

Second Floor Apartment? Meh! First floor?

 

[oleheat]

Most of LSU is in no danger if the levee overtops. The railroad tracks will stop most if not all of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You do not want the levee to overtop. If it does, there is an even more serious risk of structural failure. Best case would be to utilize Morganza- and then hopefully the Corp is correct in it's figures....

 

[crippy02]

so here's what ya do. open and close the damn thing when you open it, just to make sure you'll be able to close it. if not,you have all the time from when you opened it till it needs to be closed to figure out how the frik they're gonna close the dqamn thing.