Kiwanis Club of Walker

[WPW]

Has anyone heard about or bought a ticket from this club for their 52 gun give-away? I checked out their website at www.walkerkiwanis.us but wanted some input before I "pulled the trigger'.

 

[mforsta]

I haven’t done this raffle but one like it. They are a lottery drawing. Your ticket number has to be drawn just like the lottery. The likelihood of winning are very small.

 

[WPW]

I see they are only selling 1000 so at least 52 will win.

 

[WPW]

I bought two tickets. I'm told the Kiwanis do good thing in the community and the odds are better than the lottery. Can't win if you don't play.

 

[JBP55]

I bought two tickets. I'm told the Kiwanis do good thing in the community and the odds are better than the lottery. Can't win if you don't play.

What he said.

 

[RaleighReloader]

This is a classic case of the supposed odds of winning looking much better than the actual odds.

Mathematically: there is a 0.1% chance of any one ticket taking home a prize throughout the year. The math is pretty straightforward.

The probability of *not* winning a prize is:

(1000 tickets - 1 ticket purchased) / 52 chances to win
----------------------------------------------------- = 99.9%
(1000 tickets) / 52 chances to win

Based on this, the odds are:

(1 - 99%) / (99%) = 0.1%

A 0.1% chance (in other words, one in one thousand) of increasing my $50 investment by five fold to eight fold isn't worth it, in my books.

All the same, the Kiwanis are a fine organization and I wouldn't hesitate to support them. I just wouldn't hold my breath that I'd be taking home a new gun.

Mike

 

[JBP55]

This is a classic case of the supposed odds of winning looking much better than the actual odds.

Mathematically: there is a 0.1% chance of any one ticket taking home a prize throughout the year. The math is pretty straightforward.

The probability of *not* winning a prize is:

(1000 tickets - 1 ticket purchased) / 52 chances to win
----------------------------------------------------- = 99.9%
(1000 tickets) / 52 chances to win

Based on this, the odds are:

(1 - 99%) / (99%) = 0.1%

A 0.1% chance (in other words, one in one thousand) of increasing my $50 investment by five fold to eight fold isn't worth it, in my books.

All the same, the Kiwanis are a fine organization and I wouldn't hesitate to support them. I just wouldn't hold my breath that I'd be taking home a new gun.

Mike

I support the Walker Kiwanis every time they have a raffle and I never hold my breath thinking I will win and anyone can do the math.