Paging civil engineering types and those who watch the news.

[robbynola]

So, I've looked at Mississippi River flood coverage, but can't find any news one way or the other about the New Orleans area. As far as I can tell, places being flooded are resultant from spillway openings and planned levee demolitions. Does anyone have input on possible flooding danger in the New Orleans area? Obviously, USACOE won't do any planned flooding in a major metropolitan area, but is there any significant risk the river cresting over the levee or the levee failing? Just wondering if I should start making backup plans.

 

[XD-GEM]

The Times Picayune had a Corps "worst case" flood map the other day. It showed that Orleans, Jefferson, and parts of St. Bernard would be flooded up to 30 feet, on both sides of the river.

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/05/army_corps_fears_massive_flood.html

Their estimate for a managed flood of the Bonnet Carre and Morganza spillways is here:
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/05/map_of_mississippi_river_flood.html

 

[Emperor]

Obviously, USACOE won't do any planned flooding in a major metropolitan area,

Depends on who you ask?

Go to MSNBC website for fantasy; go to NOAA website for reality.

 

[Renegade]

All the official flood maps and some good pics are on the Team New Orleans, US Army Corps of Engineers' photostream.

 

[robbynola]

All the official flood maps and some good pics are on the Team New Orleans, US Army Corps of Engineers' photostream.

Well I sure as hell hope that scenario 2 doesn't happen. I thought it would be fine since I live on the third floor, but that thing is saying up to 20 feet in my area. I guess it's time to buy an inflatable Kayak.

Thanks for all the info, guys. I'm hoping anything but scenario 2. It's looking like some of you guys are getting water no matter which scenario happens. Good luck, and I hope everything turns out okay for BSers.

If anyone else has info to share, please post it. I'll keep an eye open and put anything new that pops up on this thread.

 

[Renegade]

LOLZ!!! Scenario 2 is a "Doomsday" Scenario.

We need to explain several factors incorporated in the development of this map.

First, and foremost, Scenario 2 is built with the assumption the Corps takes no action in terms of diverting more water from the Mississippi into the Atchafalaya – in effect, that the Corps does NOT use the Morganza Spillway...

Second, Scenario 2 is not truly a single outcome of a disastrous levee failure, but a composite of all the most severe flooding that could result from various levee failures and breaches.

While one worst-case scenario could lead to water levels of 10 to 20 feet or more in sections of New Orleans, and another could produce unimaginable flooding in the greater Baton Rouge area, it is exceedingly unlikely that both areas could be so catastrophically impacted at the same time.

Third, Scenario 2 fails to take into account "flood fight" efforts already underway by the Corps, by the state, by numerous parishes and municipalities.

"Flood fight" efforts - already underway or soon to be started, such as sandbagging, Hesco basket installation, levee reinforcement and those orange Tiger Dams - will all add to the safety factor and further reduce the threat of a major breach.

Source: http://www.wafb.com/story/14633419/new-doomsday-scenario-map-from-the-corps-explained

 

[Emperor]

All the official flood maps and some good pics are on the Team New Orleans, US Army Corps of Engineers' photostream.

Nice pics! Really brought back interesting memories of all the places I used to fish and hunt down in New Orleans, now completely changed with walls and weirs.

 

[bravobadger]

PANIC
Seriously though, mostly media hype.

 

[Emperor]

LOLZ!!! Scenario 2 is a "Doomsday" Scenario.

My house on Bluff Road get 30-40 feet in that scenario!

Goodbye everybody!

 

[Renegade]

But all the thugs in North BR will be on the high ground. My advice: paddle south

 

[XD-GEM]

PANIC
Seriously though, mostly media hype.

Perhaps. But a few heartfelt prayers wouldn't hurt.

 

[Renegade]

Some of the comments in this article are hilarious: Holden reassures residents on preparations for high water

 

[Emperor]

But all the thugs in North BR will be on the high ground. My advice: paddle south

Well then, I guess us white folk will have to do what the people in the midwest did in great 1993 flood. Peacefully pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and reduild our lives without the media reminding everyone how downtrodden and helpless we all are.

And we won't have to worry about god's children, they will be safe.

 

[LACamper]

I have a serious question. What would it be like to be in N.O. if the levee failed? Would it be a gradual flooding? Or a 40+ mph wall of water carrying debris?
In Katrina a wall of water hit my chain link fence carrying branches and mud and bent the 3" steel fence posts flat for 40'. That water was only 3.5' feet deep. They're talking 10' feet deep. I'm envisioning 300K+ dead in N.O. area, more in Baton Rouge if that's the case.

 

[BRBrett]

I live off of sherwood. Should I buy a boat?

 

[Barney88PDC]

It would all depend on how it failed and how catastrophic it did fail. Too many variables to answer that question. Worst case would be a sudden major breach. Then yes you could have a "wall" of water. I cannot see a SUDDEN MAJOR breach unless foul play is involved. But moving water is VERY powerful and it doesnt take a "wall" to do great damage.


How bad it would be for you would depend on where you were in relation to the breach as well. Meaning if you were in the direct path it could be damage from rushing water or if not in the direct path then you would be affected by rising water from back water flooding. Head to higher ground if you have family or friends you can stay with if you want to be 100% sure you are safe.

 

[gonepecan]

It would all depend on how it failed and how catastrophic it did fail. Too many variables to answer that question. Worst case would be a sudden major breach. Then yes you could have a "wall" of water. I cannot see a SUDDEN MAJOR breach unless foul play is involved. But moving water is VERY powerful and it doesnt take a "wall" to do great damage.


How bad it would be for you would depend on where you were in relation to the breach as well. Meaning if you were in the direct path it could be damage from rushing water or if not in the direct path then you would be affected by rising water from back water flooding. Head to higher ground if you have family or friends you can stay with if you want to be 100% sure you are safe.

+1. It would just depend on how and when the levee broke. A complete failure would be a lot different that a small break that doesn't progress quickly.

You'd be safer being closer to the river, but obviously, you wouldn't be if you lived right where the crevasse happens. Where I am, I would imagine Mobil refinery would help slow the water down, but the water would rise quickly.

But I don't think the Corps is off at all, nor do I think they are trying to freak people out. If there was a complete levee failure while the river is cresting between 17 to almost 20 feet, I doubt they, or anyone, could do much to plug it. During Katrina, water levels in the city stopped rising when they equaled the water level in the lake. In this case, it wouldn't stop until it matched the river level.

Being that this entire area is under the current level of the river, it would be under water.To give you a reference, St. Louis Cathedral would have multiple feet of water inside.

While I'm not too worried since Morganza is opening, the levees are water soaked and anything can happen. They are watching the river for when river levels begin to decrease. If it falls too rapidly, it could take the levee with it.

I'm praying for you guys that could get flooded from Morganza opening.

 

[Emperor]

There is already a Louisiana levee breach occurring in Providence.

 

[Akajun]

There is already a Louisiana levee breach occurring in Providence.

Yes but its an old levee abandoned years ago, and new higher one that is still maintained by the UACOE is still holding. THe old levee was used by farmers to protect their crops from yearly average flooding.

 

[robbynola]

I live off of sherwood. Should I buy a boat?

Depending on what part of Sherwood, I'd suggest an amphibious assault vehicle.